Bloomberg analysts revise ETH ETF approval odds to 75% amid rumors of SEC flip
The SEC has asked spot Ethereum ETF applicants to update their 19-b4 filings, leading to greater optimism around potential approvals, according to sources.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on May 20 that the SEC could reverse its expected stance and choose not to deny the pending applications. He cited ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who claimed the SEC could approve 19-b4 exchange listing rules while postponing its decision on S-1 registration statements.
James Seyffart added that he and Balchunas had heard from multiple sources and that several new filings should emerge in the coming days.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terret said her sources have also confirmed that the SEC has told issuers to update 19b-4 filings. She said earlier that the matter is “evolving in real-time.”
Bloomberg odds at 75%
Balchunas and Seyffart updated their odds for a spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75% from their most recent predictions of 25% to 30%
Balchunas also noted that the matter has become an “increasingly political issue,” a topic that has been heavily discussed over the past week.
On May 15, Coinbase Research Analyst David Han suggested that the US election year could influence the SEC’s decision. At the time, Balchunas called Han’s statements a “risk-free PR move” and said his own predictions carried more risk to his reputation.
Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams, who agreed that politics could play a role in approvals around the time of the Coinbase report, supported Balchunas’ statements today. He responded:
“This is what political pressure during election years can do.”
Some commentators remain pessimistic. Blockchain Association Director of Government Relations Ron Hammond said on May 20 that many believe the SEC will deny applications based on political indicators and comments from issuers.
First deadline looms
Deadlines are rapidly approaching. The SEC must decide on VanEck’s proposal for a spot ETH ETF on May 23 but may decide on multiple applications simultaneously.
The prediction market Polymarket now suggests a 10% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF could be approved by the end of May, based on crypto-backed bets.
The latest developments coincide with sudden price growth for ETH. The price of Ethereum is up 20% over 24 hours, with most of those gains within two hours of Balchunas’ announcement. The crypto market is up 6.7% over 24 hours, while Bitcoin is up 5.2%.
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