Bitcoin Supply Crisis Would Trigger BTC Bull Market Even if ETF Bids Get Denied: Crypto Analyst
A popular crypto analyst believes Bitcoin (BTC) will witness another bull run even if regulators reject all proposed BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.
Analyst Josh Rager tells his 201,600 X followers that he expects there to be a BTC supply crisis following the next Bitcoin halving, slated for April 2024.
According to the crypto strategist, the halving, which slashes BTC miners’ rewards in half, will create a supply issue that sends Bitcoin into bull territory next year even without a spot-based ETF acting as a catalyst.
“I would say due to the supply issue and the block reward cut in half that the Bitcoin halving definitely has an impact on price.
But the impact on price is delayed usually by a couple of months – if you look at past historical Bitcoin halvings and where the price started to uptrend post-event…
The Bitcoin ETF is a significant factor in overall Bitcoin price and will have a major influence in the upcoming year. Still… even if ETF was denied (though I don’t see it happening this time) with the Bitcoin supply crisis at hand, it’s very likely Bitcoin price would continue to uptrend throughout 2024 after an ETF denial dump.”
Josh Rager highlights that the post-halving uptrend has historical precedence but notes that the sample size is low.
“One can’t deny the fundamentals and impact that a decrease in block reward has on overall price over the following years… Even if ETF denial [happens] – Bitcoin will still run up in 2024”
As for his long-term outlook on BTC, Josh Rager predicts that Bitcoin will begin to witness a full-blown bull market by June 2024.
“My prediction for BTC price over the next year:
– Bitcoin ETF in September also gets postponed until [March].
Price pulls back and continues to chop range between $20,000 to $30,000 next six months.
– ETF approved by [March]. Bitcoin price pumps into halving event around April (maybe up to $40,000).
After halving, the price stalls and pulls back a bit for the weeks following.
– Up only Bitcoin price action starts sometime around June/July 2024 and runs hard into early/mid-2025.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $29,207.
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